When Will Grapics Cards Become Affordable Again
There's no denying 2021 was a tough year for GPUs, and for PC enthusiasts every bit a whole. Nosotros all hoped the GPU shortage would exist over before the end of the twelvemonth, only at the start of 2022, the situation hasn't improved. There's a lot to get excited about from graphics cards in 2022, though.
From the entrance of a 3rd major competitor to the cautiously optimistic signs for increased supply, 2022 is shaping up to exist an inflection betoken. At present that the ball has dropped and our calendars accept reset, here's what to expect from graphics cards this year.
Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs
Perhaps the most heady GPU news for 2022 is Intel'due south Arc Alchemist graphics cards. Intel makes a lot of GPUs, just Arc Alchemist marks the commencement fourth dimension the company is designing a slot-in desktop GPU that'south focused on gaming.
Rumors suggested Intel would launch the cards at CES, which is kind of true. Intel announced that Arc Alchemist is in over 50 desktops and laptops "coming soon" at CES, merely the company didn't provide details on what cards are in the range, when they'll arrive, or how much they'll cost. For at present, we know nigh a few laptops — such every bit the Alienware X17 — with an Arc GPU, only no other details too that.
The rumor mill says that the flagship bill of fare from the range volition perform around the level of an RTX 3070, but I'm waiting until Intel shares more. Intel has already shared some data about its XeSS upscaling feature that will be included with these graphics cards. It functions similarly to Nvidia'south Deep Learning Super Sampling (DLSS), and Intel has appear that Hitman iii,The Riftbreaker, and Decease Stranding: Director'south Cutting volition support the feature at launch.
It'due south been too long that the GPU market has been wrapped upwardly in the AMD and Nvidia rivalry, and then I'm looking forward to what Intel can do with Arc Alchemist. XeSS looks confusing plenty, and as long as the cards perform like rumors advise they volition, we'll accept a third competitor in the ring. That said, we're already in the launch window Intel appear for Arc Alchemist, and we however know very footling most the cards.
New mobile GPUs from AMD and Nvidia
Nvidia recently launched a 12GB variant of the RTX 2060 Super, and at CES, Nvidia and AMD came with new desktop announcements. AMD brought the $199 RX 6500 XT, and Nvidia showed off the $249 RTX 3050 and RTX 3090 Ti. Nvidia also quietly launched a 12GB variant of the RTX 3080, which was absent from its CES keynote.
That'due south it for desktop announcements right at present. For the first half of the year, Nvidia and AMD are focused on mobile graphics. AMD brought viii new mobile GPU designs to CES, including the new RX 6000S cards. These cards are a counter to Nvidia'southward Max-Q offerings, focusing on performance per watt instead of raw performance.
Nvidia but showed off ii new mobile GPUs, but they're adept ones. The RTX 3080 Ti mobile and RTX 3070 Ti volition eventually supplant the non-Ti models in laptops, and they should offer a sizeable increment in performance. Nvidia says the RTX 3080 Ti mobile is more powerful than a desktop Titan RTX, which is seriously impressive.
I don't suspect we'll run into any more than mobile GPUs from Nvidia or AMD, at least not from the current generations. We may see some special editions, but AMD and Nvidia have stacked mobile line-ups post-obit CES.
A roller coaster of prices
I'd normally expect GPU prices to drop as generations start to show their age. But the GPU market isn't normal right now, and I can't tell y'all where GPU prices volition become. Prices dropped toward the middle of 2021, showing hopeful signs that the GPU shortage was finally slowing downwardly. Now that nosotros're at the start of 2022, prices are support again.
The cost of components is up in the air, and graphics cards are still subject to a 25% tariff. Nvidia and other companies take asked the U.S. government for an exclusion from these tariffs, just that exclusion hasn't been granted at the time of publication. In that location are too whispers that AMD could be applying a 10% price increase to its RX 6000 graphics cards.
It goes without proverb: GPU pricing is a mess, and it will likely remain a mess throughout most of 2022. I suspect we'll run across a drib in prices at the beginning of the year, a boost around summer, and another dip in the autumn (hopefully one that continues dropping). That'southward only speculation, though. There'south no fashion to predict where prices are heading given how the GPU market place has been for over a twelvemonth.
Prices will drib at some point, but they may not achieve the same levels equally before. The coronavirus pandemic massively increased the demand for PCs and graphics cards, and that demand hasn't gone away — even as plenty of people render to the office. Though there are signs of sub-$200 GPUs from AMD and Intel in the future, we don't accept those options. Graphics cards may never be as inexpensive every bit they once were.
Increased supply
Like pricing, I don't take a GPU crystal ball that spells out where the market is headed. However, there are signs that supply will increment throughout 2022. Nvidia recently said that it expects the GPU shortage to cap off around the middle of 2022. Intel's CEO said something similar, stating that the bit shortage volition meliorate throughout 2022, hopefully creating a stable supply concatenation by 2023.
That doesn't necessarily mean a driblet in toll. Supply and demand are important, but the cost of components and tariffs could still make graphics cards more expensive than they should be. Looking into next year, I expect you'll be able to find graphics cards more easily at online retailers, but their prices will remain high.
I'm seeing signs of that already. Although graphics cards are tough to notice, major retailers have cards in stock correct at present. They're mostly lesser-of-the-barrel options — the Radeon RX 6900 XT, which is a great graphics card, is probable in stock due to its price — but there are cards bachelor. That situation should improve next year.
New generations from AMD and Nvidia
Although nosotros may non hear almost them for months, AMD and Nvidia have adjacent-gen graphics cards in the works. For Nvidia, it's the RTX 40-series. A launch in fall 2022 would go on with Nvidia'southward usual release cadence, and multiple leakers have pointed to a release effectually that fourth dimension.
Rumors suggest that Nvidia is ditching Samsung every bit its manufacturer of choice for these cards, instead developing them on chipmaker TSMC's N5 process. The smaller procedure points to a massive boost in performance, though leakers say that the extra performance comes at the cost of increased power draw.
Nosotros know much less most AMD'south RX 7000 graphics cards. Originally, rumors claimed that AMD would launch these cards at the end of 2021, but it seems the launch date has slipped into 2022. We may encounter them earlier than RTX 40-series cards, but I notwithstanding wait AMD to wait until the heart of the year, at least.
These cards will also reportedly use the N5 node, which could offer up to a ii.5x increase in performance over AMD's current offerings. RX 6000 cards reached operation parity with Nvidia, so I'1000 looking forwards to what AMD has in shop for its next-generation cards.
A focus on upscaling and image quality
Going into 2022, I expect the chat around upscaling and prototype quality to heat up. In 2019, Nvidia shifted the focus to real-time ray tracing. Now that consoles and modern GPUs back up ray tracing, it'south quondam news. In 2022, you'll run across Nvidia and AMD focus on performance.
We have the two major upscaling features already: Nvidia's Deep Learning Super Sampling (DLSS) and AMD's FidelityFX Super Resolution (FSR). These two technologies work differently, and they produce different results. Simply they're both upscaling tools to meliorate your frame rate while maintaining as much image quality every bit possible.
Nosotros haven't heard the end of these technologies. I'grand expecting to come across a new version of FSR that works similarly to DLSS. AMD would need to wait until it releases RX 7000 GPUs because the current cards don't have the necessary hardware. Assuming we get RX 7000 cards side by side yr, I wouldn't exist surprised to see FSR 2.0 alongside them.
I'thou not confident we'll meet a new version of DLSS side by side year though. Nvidia quietly released DLSS 2.3 non too long ago, and it seems like these iterative updates volition exist par for the form over the next twelvemonth. Nvidia has a commanding lead with DLSS based on our testing, and I imagine Nvidia will ride that wave for as long as it can.
Intel XeSS could throw a wrench in those cogs, though. Intel plans on releasing 2 versions of XeSS, i that works specifically with Intel graphics cards and another that works across all GPUs. The biggest weakness of DLSS is that it only works on the near contempo Nvidia graphics cards. XeSS works on everything, so we might come across a bigger response from Nvidia to counter XeSS.
I'm anticipating that Intel, Nvidia, and AMD will go back and along on image quality and performance for their upscaling features, whichever is almost beneficial to them at the time. Both are of import, but I suspect nosotros'll hear more than about one being more important than the other throughout 2022.
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Source: https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/what-to-expect-from-gpus-2022/
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